Accuracy of clinical predictions of prognosis at the end-of-life: evidence from routinely collected data in urgent care records.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of prognostication has important implications for patients, families, and health services since it may be linked to clinical decision-making, patient experience and outcomes and resource allocation. Study aim is to evaluate the accuracy of temporal predictions of survival in patients with cancer, dementia, heart, or respiratory disease. METHODS: Accuracy of clinical prediction was evaluated using retrospective, observational cohort study of 98,187 individuals with a Coordinate My Care record, the Electronic Palliative Care Coordination System serving London, 2010-2020. The survival times of patients were summarised using median and interquartile ranges. Kaplan Meier survival curves were created to describe and compare survival across prognostic categories and disease trajectories. The extent of agreement between estimated and actual prognosis was quantified using linear weighted Kappa statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 3% were predicted to live "days"; 13% "weeks"; 28% "months"; and 56% "year/years". The agreement between estimated and actual prognosis using linear weighted Kappa statistic was highest for patients with dementia/frailty (0.75) and cancer (0.73). Clinicians' estimates were able to discriminate (log-rank p < 0.001) between groups of patients with differing survival prospects. Across all disease groups, the accuracy of survival estimates was high for patients who were likely to live for fewer than 14 days (74% accuracy) or for more than one year (83% accuracy), but less accurate at predicting survival of "weeks" or "months" (32% accuracy). CONCLUSION: Clinicians are good at identifying individuals who will die imminently and those who will live for much longer. The accuracy of prognostication for these time frames differs across major disease categories, but remains acceptable even in non-cancer patients, including patients with dementia. Advance Care Planning and timely access to palliative care based on individual patient needs may be beneficial for those where there is significant prognostic uncertainty; those who are neither imminently dying nor expected to live for "years".

Decreased expression of MMP-9 in CD8+ cells in placenta with severe preeclampsia.

We compared the number of CD4-positive (CD4+) and CD8-positive (CD8+) cells in severe and non-severe preeclampsia (PE), and in normal pregnancy. We also evaluated the expression of matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) in CD4+ and CD8+ cells. Immunohistochemistry for CD4+ and CD8+ was performed on the decidua basalis of 15 severe and 13 non-severe PE women and compared to decidual tissue of 19 normal pregnancies (control group). Co-expression of MMP-9 with CD8+ and CD4+ cells was determined by double immunofluorescence staining. The median number of CD8+ cells/mm2 was significantly lower for the severe PE group than for the normal pregnancy group, as was the number of CD4+ cells and MMP-9+CD8+ cells. No statistical difference was found between the non-severe PE group and the normal pregnancy group. The significant decrease of CD4+, CD8+ and MMP-9+CD8+ cells at the fetal-maternal interface only in the severe PE group suggests that immunological disorders play a role in the pathophysiology of severe PE.

[Inhibitor development against FVIII in previously treated patients with haemophilia A. A retrospective data collection]. / Inhibitorentwicklung bei FVIII-Präparaten in vorbehandelten Patienten mit Hämophilie A. Eine retrospektive Datenerhebung.

UNLABELLED: In a retrospective study 118 haemophilia A patients from two treatment centres (Berlin and Muenster) were evaluated with respect to safety, i. e. inhibitor development, and efficacy of bleeding control of recombinant FVIII products. During approx. 57 thousand injections with more than 87 million I.U. rFVIII no de novo inhibitor was observed in patients previously treated with pFVIII after switch to a recombinant product. A total of 75 thousand injections with more than 111 million I.U. FVIII had been applied during the investigation period of 14 years. Before as well as after switch of the product type bleeding episodes could be controlled with one to two injections per bleed. CONCLUSION: According to our results equal safety and efficacy of plasma derived and recombinant FVIII products can be assumed.

[Haemophilia A and haemophilia B. Are there relevant clinical differences?]. / Hämophilie A und Hämophilie B. Gibt es relevante klinische Unterschiede?

UNLABELLED: Haemophilia B (HB) was described in 1952 as a single disease for the first time. In comparison to haemophilia A (HA) the bleeding tendency seemed to be less severe. The aim of this study was to investigate this hypothesis in all patients with HA and HB treated in the haemophilia care center of the Vivantes Klinikum. PATIENTS, METHODS: All patients with severe HA and HB treated at the haemophilia care center were included. We evaluated the regimen of replacement therapy and factor concentrate consumption within the last 5 years (1/2004 to 12/2008). Intracerebral bleeds were analysed over the whole life span of the included patients. RESULTS: 111/181 patients with HA had the severe form and 12/34 patients severe HB. 4/12 patients with severe HB had a history of intracerebral bleeding in comparison to 5/111 patients with severe HA. 2/8 adult patients with severe HB used a prophylactic treatment with factor concentrates (mean consumption 1289 IU factor IX/kg BW/year) in contrast to 60/95 adult patients with HA (mean consumption 2109 IU factor VIII /kg BW/year). CONCLUSION: The data suggest a milder bleeding type of patients with severe HB in comparison to patients with severe HA but may be patients with severe HB are at higher risk for intracerebral bleeds.